The Board of Audit and Inspection recently released a shocking population report. It contains ultra-long-term population estimates and fact-finding surveys that have never been tried before. It also suggested a shift in the idea that low birth rate measures should be considered in connection with concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area. It is worth evaluating as the first de facto comprehensive report on population policy and regional policy that has been sporadic. Some say it is a Korean version of the "Masuda Report," which shocked Japan. The Board of Audit and Inspection's report was analyzed in depth.
In 2117, the population of 15 million "mini-state" will disappear from the Republic of Korea and Gangnam.
Korea's population in 100 years, less than Japanese colonial era, due to low birth rates and aging population
According to the Statistical Yearbook prepared by the Governor-General of Korea Japanese colonial era, the total number of Koreans in Korea in 1917 is estimated to be 16.97 million. Exactly 100 years later, the population of South Korea was 51.32 million in 2017. It has grown three times more explosively in a century. How much more will the population grow in 100 years?
It is expected that Korea will no longer be able to see the scenery of Korea, which has no time to step into the highest level of population density. Korea's population, which peaked at more than 50 million, will gradually decrease and shrink to 15.1 million by 217. Except for "Gangnam" in Seoul, most cities across the country go through a phase of extinction.
This is the future of "mini-national" Korea, which was drawn by the "Status of Response to Changes in Population Structure" report released by the Board of Audit and Inspection. The population is falling sharply, and more than half of them are aged 65 or older and have no one to work for. Due to the population gap, the distinction between 229 cities, counties, and districts will also become meaningless. In terms of population structure alone, it is more depressing than Japanese colonial era.
The report released by the Board of Audit and Inspection is said to be shocking as it is about to enter the ultra-aged society. In cooperation with the National Statistical Office, the government first diagnosed the seriousness of low birth rates and aging population by predicting population changes in 100 years. It is the first time that the National Statistical Office has released a population estimate in 100 years.
◇A.D 2117, Gangseo Bay, Gangnam and Busan, Seoul, 'Report of Survival'
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/Graphic=Auditor's Report on Response to Changes in Population Structure
The most important thing to pay attention to is the "realization of fat extinction," which has been feared. Reflecting the recent trend of low birth rates, Korea's total population, which is 51.36 million as of 2017, is expected to decrease by 70.6 percent to 36.89 million in 2067 and 15.1 million in 217. Even the population of Seoul, which is 9.77 million, will plunge to 2.62 million, or 27 percent, 100 years later, and provinces will face a crisis regardless of the size of the city.
Metropolitan cities, which usually have a population of more than 1 million, are all down. Except for Seoul and Gyeonggi Province (4.410,000), no city or province has a population of more than 1 million in 100 years. Busan's population, which is 3.42 million, will decrease by 73.2 percent to 730,000 in 217, and Daegu will also shrink from 2.46 million in 2017 to 540,000 in 100 years. Gwangju and Daejeon, which are 1.5 million and 1.53 million, will also become 350,000 and 410,000 small and medium-sized cities in 100 years.
Local cities naturally go through a phase of extinction. According to the analysis of local extinction risk with the Korea Employment Information Service, which developed the "destruction risk index," 83 out of 229 cities, counties, and districts currently have a rapid increase to 221 in 217. The extinction risk index is the value of the female population aged 20 to 39 divided by the elderly population aged 65 or older, which forms the foundation for the future population composition. The high-risk phase means that the youth who will lead the next generation has disappeared.
Only eight local governments, including Gangnam, Seoul, will report their survival 100 years later. Only Gangnam, Gwangjin, Gwanak, and Mapo in Seoul will survive, while all regions except Busan, Gangseo, Gwangju, and Daejeon will be at high risk of extinction. 157 local governments, including the Gyeongsangbuk-do Military Commission, Goheung, Gurye, South Jeolla Province, and Sancheong, South Gyeongsang Province, face a population crisis 30 years later. In the case of the military commission, only four women aged 20 to 39 are expected to be aged when the population of 65 or older is 100 in 2047.
◇ 77% of people aged 65 or older in Goheung-gun in 2117
The bigger problem is that the majority of the population consists of senior citizens aged 65 or older, and the city's vitality is lost. Based on future population estimates, the number of elderly people aged 65 or older nationwide increased from 7.07 million (13.8 percent) in 2017 to 18.27 million (49.5 percent) in 2067 and 7.96 million in 217, exceeding half (52.8 percent) of the total population. Currently, the number of ultra-aged people aged 85 or older, which is only 600,000 (1.2 percent), has increased 19.3 percent in 100 years to 3.09 million. That's one in five people.
The population pyramid will gradually change from a jar-type structure to an inverted triangle structure, which is expected to change the local small town, which has been declared dead, the fastest. In Goheung-gun, Jeollanam-do, which has the highest extinction risk index, the proportion of the elderly population, which is currently 39.3%, will increase to 76.7 percent after 100 years. Due to the absence of the youth population, the shape of the population pyramid has turned into a pointed top.
The Board of Audit and Inspection diagnosed, "All cities, counties, and districts in Korea will enter the risk of extinction in about 30 years and enter the risk of demographic decline." "Unless there is a big turning point, the community population base will gradually disappear."
Korea's Masuda Report by the Board of Audit and Inspection for Population Disaster Prevention
인구 Audit report of the Board of Audit and Inspection, which is consistent with population policy
A recent report on the audit of population policy released by the Board of Audit and Inspection shows the shocking future of the Agequake. It dealt with the population issue in depth like the Masuda Report, which shocked Japan in 2014 by publicizing the issue of local destruction. In particular, it contains a large number of new contents that have not been covered by the government until now, including population estimates 100 years later.
According to related ministries on the 26th, a total of three recent audit reports by the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) are based on the performance analysis of low birth rate and aging measures, regional areas of population structure change. Among them, the most notable is the audit report on the regional sector of responding to changes in population structure.
The report compares with Japan's Masuda report. The Masuda report, which was led by former Prime Minister Hiroya Masuda, shocked half of Japan's (896 local governments) with a warning that if the population is on the decline, it will disappear by 2040. Since then, the issue of local extinction has begun to be publicized in earnest.
◇ What did the auditor's audit report say?
As the Board of Audit and Inspection said, the audit report begins with a big question, "If the current level of ultra-low birth rate and concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area continue, how will the future local population change?" To this end, the National Statistical Office has sought cooperation from the National Statistical Office to predict changes in population in 100 years. It is the first time that a population estimate has been made at the government level in 100 years.
According to estimates, the total population will decrease from 51.36 million in 2017 to 15.1 million in 217. Based on the "Masda Report," among 229 municipalities, 157 were classified as high-risk areas in 2047, 216 in 2067 and 221 in 217. It is safe to say that there are few normal areas.
Another area where audit reports stand out is the low birth rate survey. The government's basic plan for a low-birth age society, which is the highest unit of the government's low birth rate measures, has been passive in investigating the situation. There was no proper solution due to the lack of investigation. The Board of Audit and Inspection focused on this area. The solution was found in the concentration of young people in the Seoul metropolitan area.
According to the Board of Audit and Inspection, the ratio of the population in the Seoul metropolitan area, which was 50.1 percent as of last year, will increase to 53.2 percent in 20 The reason why young people flock to the Seoul metropolitan area was judged by education and jobs. Last year, high school students in provincial areas entered universities in the Seoul metropolitan area with 14.4 percent. As of 2018, the employment rate of graduates from local universities in the Seoul metropolitan area was 39.5 percent.
"The reason for concentration in the metropolitan area is that the population is concentrated according to changes in the industrial structure," said Ma Kang-rae, a professor of urban planning and real estate at Chung-Ang University.
◇ A fact-finding survey that attracted more attention than a shocking outlook
The Board of Audit and Inspection also proved that young people who flock to the Seoul metropolitan area are skeptical of childbirth with microdata from the National Statistical Office, research services from Seoul National University's Cognitive Science Institute, and public officials' surveys. The fierce competition in Seoul has led to an ultra-low birth rate in Seoul. Seoul's ultra-low birth rate was also a factor that reduced the nation's average fertility rate.
The Board of Audit and Inspection also dug into loopholes in existing population and regional policies. Innovation cities are representative. Only 15 percent of the population of the Seoul metropolitan area were introduced into local innovative cities. On the other hand, the population-inducing effect of recycling innovative city buildings in the Seoul metropolitan area was greater than that of relocating public institutions. The conclusion is that innovative cities have failed in terms of population decentralization.
Cha Mi-sook, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of Land, said, "The Board of Audit and Inspection pointed out the exact point in that low birth rate measures should be considered in connection with regional policies due to concentration in the metropolitan area."
The Board of Audit and Inspection has invited 16 domestic experts to hold seminars since January last year for the audit report, and conducted meetings with population policy managers throughout last year. The National Statistical Office and the Employment Information Service have requested various estimates and analyses and confirmed the results of the audit. The reason why sufficient investigation was conducted is because it was easy to provide data due to the nature of the Board of Audit and Inspection.
"The government established a low birth rate aging society committee in 2005 and is pushing for low birth rate measures, but ministries have not paid enough attention to long-term projects such as low birth rate and population," an official at the Board of Audit and Inspection said.
40 percent of local college students "got jobs in the metropolitan area"…Seoul is an ultra-low birth rate republic.
수도 Youth driven to the Seoul metropolitan area → Low birth rate due to competition in the metropolitan area → Overall birth rate decrease
Four out of 10 local university students moved to find jobs in the Seoul metropolitan area. go to high school in the countryside Considering young people who went to universities in the Seoul metropolitan area, the concentration of young people in the metropolitan area has become irreversible. High-quality educational environments and jobs concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area lose ground for local young people.
The problem is that as competition among young people in the Seoul metropolitan area intensifies, marriage and childbirth are avoided. Seoul's total fertility rate is the lowest among 17 metropolitan and provincial governments. The audit also showed that the low birth rate issue is related to the concentration of young people in the Seoul metropolitan area.
◇ Jobs crowded in Seoul…Local youths flock to Seoul.
According to the recent "audit report on responding to changes in population structure" released by the Board of Audit and Inspection, 39.5% of local university graduates (employed) found jobs in the Seoul metropolitan area as of 2018. In Chungcheongnam-do, which is relatively close to the metropolitan area, 67.3 percent of graduates from universities in the region were employed in jobs in the metropolitan area.
On the other hand, only 11.7 percent of graduates from universities in the Seoul metropolitan area were employed in local jobs. Of all college graduates, 59.3 percent and 40.7 percent were employed in the metropolitan area and provinces, respectively. The statistics are a reconstruction of the data submitted by the Board of Audit and Inspection from the Ministry of Education, and were analyzed for those whose detailed employment information was confirmed. It is the first time that the Ministry of Education has released related data.
Young people's preference in the Seoul metropolitan area is linked to "quality jobs." Of the 2,278 companies belonging to the public corporation, which has a total assets of more than 5 trillion won in 2019, 1,179 (51.8 percent) are located in Seoul. If it includes 418 (18.3 percent) in Gyeonggi Province and 64 (2.8 percent) in Incheon, 1661 (72.9 percent) are located in the Seoul metropolitan area.
"The more competitive young people, the more opportunities and resources the Seoul metropolitan area has to secure competitiveness, and they prefer the metropolitan area to secure competitiveness despite its high competition rate," said the Institute of Cognitive Science at Seoul National University.
◇ High population density in Seoul, young people are reluctant to marry and give birth
Young people who preferred the Seoul metropolitan area were skeptical about marriage and childbirth. As of 2018, the percentage of single-person households in the Seoul metropolitan area was 35.4 percent. The proportion of single-person households in provincial areas is 13.8 percent. Among newly married couples with less than five years of marriage, the percentage without children is also higher in the Seoul metropolitan area (43.6 percent) than in provincial areas (36.2 percent).
According to last year's birth statistics released by the National Statistical Office on the 25th, the total fertility rate in Seoul is 0.64. It is much lower than the national average (0.84 percent). Compared to the total fertility rate in 2019, the total fertility rate in 2000 is also different from 43.9% in Seoul and 34% in provincial areas. This means that the drop in Seoul's total fertility rate was large.
The Board of Audit and Inspection suggested competition based on population density against the backdrop of low total fertility rates in Seoul and other metropolitan areas. The Board of Audit and Inspection analyzed that the population density and total fertility rate are inversely proportional. The Board of Audit and Inspection explained, "Young people living in the densely populated metropolitan area postpone marriage and childbirth because they feel anxious about competition and future."
In order to analyze the influence of population density, a survey of 704 civil servants affected by the relocation of Sejong City was also included in the audit report. Since the relocation of Sejong, the average number of public officials in Sejong has been 1.89. However, the average number of children of civil servants who have stayed in Seoul is 1.36.
The Board of Audit and Inspection pointed out that young people in the Seoul metropolitan area choose to stay single and late due to excessive competition and anxiety about the future. "We need to come up with in-depth comprehensive measures through close cooperation at the pan-government level on low birth rates."
In the end, only Gangnam survives in Korea's future.Even half of them are "old man”.
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